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## Statistical Inference

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QUESTION State preference survey  has been conducted to study the reduction in bus travel time in influencing modal shift. The aggregated data of the survey is given in Table 1. Choose a suitable model and calibrate all parameters in your model Table 1 Modal Shift Bus travel time (Minutes) Modal shift to buses 40 0.05 35 0.09 30 0.25 25 0.5 20 0.55 ANSWER We choose logistic model Where, P is the probability, x and y are independent variables, α and β are the coefficients to be calibrated D is a constant Modified Modal Shift Bus travel time (Minutes) Modal shift to buses 20 0.55 25 0.5 30 0.25 35 0.09 40 0.05   Bus travel time (Minutes) Modal shift to buses (1-P)/P Ln (1-P)/P 40 0.05 35 0.09 30 0.25 25 0.5 20 0.55 The data was then analysed using the logistic model analysis and linear regression analysis to develop the logistic model. Logistics functions that are commonly used in transport modelling is shown in Equation (1):      …… (1)   Ln D = -3.931109467    = 0.172077086 D = 0.019621891       00.10.20.30.40.50.62025303540    M   o    d   a    l   S    h   i    f   t    (   P    ) Travel Time (Minutes) Modal shift (P) vs Travel Time    SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.981103069 R Square 0.962563231 Adjusted R Square 0.950084308 Standard Error 0.309789693 Observations 5 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 1 7.402631 7.402631 77.13512 0.003109467 Residual 3 0.287909 0.09597 Total 4 7.69054 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept -3.931109467 0.603891 -6.50963 0.007363 -5.852961055 -2.009257879 -5.852961055 -2.009257879 X Variable 1 0.172077086 0.019593 8.78266 0.003109 0.109723986 0.234430185 0.109723986 0.234430185  QUESTION TUTORIAL 3 State preference survey  has been conducted to study the reduction in bus travel time in influencing modal shift. The aggregated data of the survey is given in Table 1. Choose a suitable model and calibrate all parameters in your model Table 1 Modal Shift LRT travel time (Minutes) Modal shift to buses 40 0.05 35 0.09 30 0.25 25 0.5 20 0.55 15 0.60 10 0.63
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