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Some Systemic Effects of the Spread of Nuclear Weapons Technology a Study Through Simulation of a Multi-Nuclear Future

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Some Systemic Effects of the Spread of Nuclear Weapons Technology a Study Through Simulation of a Multi-Nuclear Future
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    Some Systemic Effects of the Spread of Nuclear Weapons Technology: A Study throughSimulation of a Multi-Nuclear FutureAuthor(s): Richard A. BrodySource: The Journal of Conflict Resolution,  Vol. 7, No. 4 (Dec., 1963), pp. 663-753Published by: Sage Publications, Inc.Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/173121Accessed: 28-11-2017 16:15 UTC   JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a widerange of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity andfacilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org. Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available athttp://about.jstor.org/terms Sage Publications, Inc.  is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The Journal of Conflict Resolution This content downloaded from 148.210.106.123 on Tue, 28 Nov 2017 16:15:20 UTCAll use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms   Some systemic effects of the  spread of nuclear weapons   simulation of a multi-nuclear   Richard A. Brody  Department of Political Science, Stanford University  Some systemic effects of the  spread of nuclear weapons   simulation of a multi-nuclear   Richard A. Brody  Department of Political Science, Stanford University  Some systemic effects of the  spread of nuclear weapons   simulation of a multi-nuclear   Richard A. Brody  Department of Political Science, Stanford University  Some systemic effects of the  spread of nuclear weapons   simulation of a multi-nuclear   Richard A. Brody  Department of Political Science, Stanford University  Some systemic effects of the  spread of nuclear weapons   simulation of a multi-nuclear   Richard A. Brody  Department of Political Science, Stanford University This content downloaded from 148.210.106.123 on Tue, 28 Nov 2017 16:15:20 UTCAll use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms    for Some Systemic Effects of the Spread of   ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...................................................................................................................... 665  S~ Y~PREFXCIg .............................................................................................................. 666   I. VAmETmS OF SLUULATXONS XN INTmaNATmNAL RELATmNS RESEARC~ ....................... 668   1.2 Types of Models ................................................................................................. 669  1.3 Political Simulations in the Study of International Relations ......................... 672   1.5 All-Man Simulations ............................................................................................ 675  1.6 Theory Playing--Simulation and the Exploration of Hypotheses .................... 680 1.7 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 685 II. Tm~ NTIt-COUNTRY t)1tOBLI~t: ......................................................................................... 688  B. 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 688  2.2 Some Key Assumptions in the Deterrence Literature ...................................... 688 2.3 Inventory of Propositions About the Nth-Country Problem Extant in the Literature ..................._ ........................................................................................ 689  2.4 Propositions Which Predict Problems Occasionecl by the Spread of Nuclear  Weapons .............................................................................................................. 689 2.5 Propositions About National Motives for Attaining Independent Nuclear   2.6 Propositions About Effects of the Spread of Nuclear Weapons on the Inter-   2.7 The Feasibility or Likelihood of Nations Achieving an Independent Nuclear   2.8 The Approach to this Study ................................................................................ 693  2.9 A Model of the Cold War System .......................................................................... 694  g. 10 The Cold War System and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons ........................... 696  III. Snv~tmAa~ON AND a~E Nra-COUNXaaY SITUXTXON: RESE~Ca D~mN .................... 099   3.2 The Inter-Nation Simulation: A Brief Description ............................................ 700 3.3 INS-8: Structuring the Basic Simulation to Admit the Exploration of the Nth-Country Situation .......................................................................................... 702  3.4 The Participants and Their Selection ................................................................ 704 3.5 Time to : The Starting Situation for INS-8 .................................................. 705   3.7 Content Analyses .................................................................................................. 707 3.8 Event Flow in INS-8 ............................................................................................ 711  IV. SIMULATION AND THE NTIt-COUNTRY SITUATION: EXPLOBATION OF ~ MODEL .... 713   4.3 Units of Analysis and the Pooling of Data ......................................................... 714  4.4 The Cold War System: Conditions and Linkages ........................................... 715  4.5 The Nth-Country Situation: Conditions and Linkages ....................................... 731  4.6 Summary: The Status of the Model ................................................................ 744 V. QUESTIONS OF GENERALIZINO: FltOM INS-8 TO ~E RmL WORLD ........................ 747  APPF~NDLX I ................................................................................................................................... 749  REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................................... 750   for Some Systemic Effects of the Spread of   ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...................................................................................................................... 665  S~ Y~PREFXCIg .............................................................................................................. 666   I. VAmETmS OF SLUULATXONS XN INTmaNATmNAL RELATmNS RESEARC~ ....................... 668   1.2 Types of Models ................................................................................................. 669  1.3 Political Simulations in the Study of International Relations ......................... 672   1.5 All-Man Simulations ............................................................................................ 675  1.6 Theory Playing--Simulation and the Exploration of Hypotheses .................... 680 1.7 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 685 II. Tm~ NTIt-COUNTRY t)1tOBLI~t: ......................................................................................... 688  B. 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 688  2.2 Some Key Assumptions in the Deterrence Literature ...................................... 688 2.3 Inventory of Propositions About the Nth-Country Problem Extant in the Literature ..................._ ........................................................................................ 689  2.4 Propositions Which Predict Problems Occasionecl by the Spread of Nuclear  Weapons .............................................................................................................. 689 2.5 Propositions About National Motives for Attaining Independent Nuclear   2.6 Propositions About Effects of the Spread of Nuclear Weapons on the Inter-   2.7 The Feasibility or Likelihood of Nations Achieving an Independent Nuclear   2.8 The Approach to this Study ................................................................................ 693  2.9 A Model of the Cold War System .......................................................................... 694  g. 10 The Cold War System and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons ........................... 696  III. Snv~tmAa~ON AND a~E Nra-COUNXaaY SITUXTXON: RESE~Ca D~mN .................... 099   3.2 The Inter-Nation Simulation: A Brief Description ............................................ 700 3.3 INS-8: Structuring the Basic Simulation to Admit the Exploration of the Nth-Country Situation .......................................................................................... 702  3.4 The Participants and Their Selection ................................................................ 704 3.5 Time to : The Starting Situation for INS-8 .................................................. 705   3.7 Content Analyses .................................................................................................. 707 3.8 Event Flow in INS-8 ............................................................................................ 711  IV. SIMULATION AND THE NTIt-COUNTRY SITUATION: EXPLOBATION OF ~ MODEL .... 713   4.3 Units of Analysis and the Pooling of Data ......................................................... 714  4.4 The Cold War System: Conditions and Linkages ........................................... 715  4.5 The Nth-Country Situation: Conditions and Linkages ....................................... 731  4.6 Summary: The Status of the Model ................................................................ 744 V. QUESTIONS OF GENERALIZINO: FltOM INS-8 TO ~E RmL WORLD ........................ 747  APPF~NDLX I ................................................................................................................................... 749  REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................................... 750   for Some Systemic Effects of the Spread of   ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...................................................................................................................... 665  S~ Y~PREFXCIg .............................................................................................................. 666   I. VAmETmS OF SLUULATXONS XN INTmaNATmNAL RELATmNS RESEARC~ ....................... 668   1.2 Types of Models ................................................................................................. 669  1.3 Political Simulations in the Study of International Relations ......................... 672   1.5 All-Man Simulations ............................................................................................ 675  1.6 Theory Playing--Simulation and the Exploration of Hypotheses .................... 680 1.7 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 685 II. Tm~ NTIt-COUNTRY t)1tOBLI~t: ......................................................................................... 688  B. 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 688  2.2 Some Key Assumptions in the Deterrence Literature ...................................... 688 2.3 Inventory of Propositions About the Nth-Country Problem Extant in the Literature ..................._ ........................................................................................ 689  2.4 Propositions Which Predict Problems Occasionecl by the Spread of Nuclear  Weapons .............................................................................................................. 689 2.5 Propositions About National Motives for Attaining Independent Nuclear   2.6 Propositions About Effects of the Spread of Nuclear Weapons on the Inter-   2.7 The Feasibility or Likelihood of Nations Achieving an Independent Nuclear   2.8 The Approach to this Study ................................................................................ 693  2.9 A Model of the Cold War System .......................................................................... 694  g. 10 The Cold War System and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons ........................... 696  III. Snv~tmAa~ON AND a~E Nra-COUNXaaY SITUXTXON: RESE~Ca D~mN .................... 099   3.2 The Inter-Nation Simulation: A Brief Description ............................................ 700 3.3 INS-8: Structuring the Basic Simulation to Admit the Exploration of the Nth-Country Situation .......................................................................................... 702  3.4 The Participants and Their Selection ................................................................ 704 3.5 Time to : The Starting Situation for INS-8 .................................................. 705   3.7 Content Analyses .................................................................................................. 707 3.8 Event Flow in INS-8 ............................................................................................ 711  IV. SIMULATION AND THE NTIt-COUNTRY SITUATION: EXPLOBATION OF ~ MODEL .... 713   4.3 Units of Analysis and the Pooling of Data ......................................................... 714  4.4 The Cold War System: Conditions and Linkages ........................................... 715  4.5 The Nth-Country Situation: Conditions and Linkages ....................................... 731  4.6 Summary: The Status of the Model ................................................................ 744 V. QUESTIONS OF GENERALIZINO: FltOM INS-8 TO ~E RmL WORLD ........................ 747  APPF~NDLX I ................................................................................................................................... 749  REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................................... 750   for Some Systemic Effects of the Spread of   ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...................................................................................................................... 665  S~ Y~PREFXCIg .............................................................................................................. 666   I. VAmETmS OF SLUULATXONS XN INTmaNATmNAL RELATmNS RESEARC~ ....................... 668   1.2 Types of Models ................................................................................................. 669  1.3 Political Simulations in the Study of International Relations ......................... 672   1.5 All-Man Simulations ............................................................................................ 675  1.6 Theory Playing--Simulation and the Exploration of Hypotheses .................... 680 1.7 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 685 II. Tm~ NTIt-COUNTRY t)1tOBLI~t: ......................................................................................... 688  B. 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 688  2.2 Some Key Assumptions in the Deterrence Literature ...................................... 688 2.3 Inventory of Propositions About the Nth-Country Problem Extant in the Literature ..................._ ........................................................................................ 689  2.4 Propositions Which Predict Problems Occasionecl by the Spread of Nuclear  Weapons .............................................................................................................. 689 2.5 Propositions About National Motives for Attaining Independent Nuclear   2.6 Propositions About Effects of the Spread of Nuclear Weapons on the Inter-   2.7 The Feasibility or Likelihood of Nations Achieving an Independent Nuclear   2.8 The Approach to this Study ................................................................................ 693  2.9 A Model of the Cold War System .......................................................................... 694  g. 10 The Cold War System and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons ........................... 696  III. Snv~tmAa~ON AND a~E Nra-COUNXaaY SITUXTXON: RESE~Ca D~mN .................... 099   3.2 The Inter-Nation Simulation: A Brief Description ............................................ 700 3.3 INS-8: Structuring the Basic Simulation to Admit the Exploration of the Nth-Country Situation .......................................................................................... 702  3.4 The Participants and Their Selection ................................................................ 704 3.5 Time to : The Starting Situation for INS-8 .................................................. 705   3.7 Content Analyses .................................................................................................. 707 3.8 Event Flow in INS-8 ............................................................................................ 711  IV. SIMULATION AND THE NTIt-COUNTRY SITUATION: EXPLOBATION OF ~ MODEL .... 713   4.3 Units of Analysis and the Pooling of Data ......................................................... 714  4.4 The Cold War System: Conditions and Linkages ........................................... 715  4.5 The Nth-Country Situation: Conditions and Linkages ....................................... 731  4.6 Summary: The Status of the Model ................................................................ 744 V. QUESTIONS OF GENERALIZINO: FltOM INS-8 TO ~E RmL WORLD ........................ 747  APPF~NDLX I ................................................................................................................................... 749  REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................................... 750   for Some Systemic Effects of the Spread of   ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...................................................................................................................... 665  S~ Y~PREFXCIg .............................................................................................................. 666   I. VAmETmS OF SLUULATXONS XN INTmaNATmNAL RELATmNS RESEARC~ ....................... 668   1.2 Types of Models ................................................................................................. 669  1.3 Political Simulations in the Study of International Relations ......................... 672   1.5 All-Man Simulations ............................................................................................ 675  1.6 Theory Playing--Simulation and the Exploration of Hypotheses .................... 680 1.7 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 685 II. Tm~ NTIt-COUNTRY t)1tOBLI~t: ......................................................................................... 688  B. 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 688  2.2 Some Key Assumptions in the Deterrence Literature ...................................... 688 2.3 Inventory of Propositions About the Nth-Country Problem Extant in the Literature ..................._ ........................................................................................ 689  2.4 Propositions Which Predict Problems Occasionecl by the Spread of Nuclear  Weapons .............................................................................................................. 689 2.5 Propositions About National Motives for Attaining Independent Nuclear   2.6 Propositions About Effects of the Spread of Nuclear Weapons on the Inter-   2.7 The Feasibility or Likelihood of Nations Achieving an Independent Nuclear   2.8 The Approach to this Study ................................................................................ 693  2.9 A Model of the Cold War System .......................................................................... 694  g. 10 The Cold War System and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons ........................... 696  III. Snv~tmAa~ON AND a~E Nra-COUNXaaY SITUXTXON: RESE~Ca D~mN .................... 099   3.2 The Inter-Nation Simulation: A Brief Description ............................................ 700 3.3 INS-8: Structuring the Basic Simulation to Admit the Exploration of the Nth-Country Situation .......................................................................................... 702  3.4 The Participants and Their Selection ................................................................ 704 3.5 Time to : The Starting Situation for INS-8 .................................................. 705   3.7 Content Analyses .................................................................................................. 707 3.8 Event Flow in INS-8 ............................................................................................ 711  IV. SIMULATION AND THE NTIt-COUNTRY SITUATION: EXPLOBATION OF ~ MODEL .... 713   4.3 Units of Analysis and the Pooling of Data ......................................................... 714  4.4 The Cold War System: Conditions and Linkages ........................................... 715  4.5 The Nth-Country Situation: Conditions and Linkages ....................................... 731  4.6 Summary: The Status of the Model ................................................................ 744 V. QUESTIONS OF GENERALIZINO: FltOM INS-8 TO ~E RmL WORLD ........................ 747  APPF~NDLX I ................................................................................................................................... 749  REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................................... 750 This content downloaded from 148.210.106.123 on Tue, 28 Nov 2017 16:15:20 UTCAll use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms   SYSTEMIC EFFECTS OF SPREAD OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS TECHNOLOGYSYSTEMIC EFFECTS OF SPREAD OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS TECHNOLOGYSYSTEMIC EFFECTS OF SPREAD OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS TECHNOLOGYSYSTEMIC EFFECTS OF SPREAD OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS TECHNOLOGYSYSTEMIC EFFECTS OF SPREAD OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS TECHNOLOGY   The research reported in this study was  team research and interdisciplinary research  in the fullest sense of these new traditions.  The director of the project--Professor  Harold Guetzkow--holds professorships in psychology and sociology, as well as polit-   Wright, who figured so significantly in  this project, are psychologists. The simula- tion staff, without whom the summer 1960  running of INS-8 never would have been   political science, history, English, and  journalism. The author of this report is   The future referred to in this study may  never come to pass--nuclear capability may  or may not spread beyond the countries  now in possession of this capability. It was not the focus of this study to ascertain the likelihood of spread taking place--the study   thus, does not hold problematical the like-  lihood of nuclear diffusion. To support  such a project, an agency of the govern-  ment must have respect for basic research; the Air Force Office of Scientific Research,  by its support of this research, has evi-   to the Air Force and Drs. Charles Hutchin-  son and Herman Sander for the instin-   The research reported in this study was  team research and interdisciplinary research  in the fullest sense of these new traditions.  The director of the project--Professor  Harold Guetzkow--holds professorships in psychology and sociology, as well as polit-   Wright, who figured so significantly in  this project, are psychologists. The simula- tion staff, without whom the summer 1960  running of INS-8 never would have been   political science, history, English, and  journalism. The author of this report is   The future referred to in this study may  never come to pass--nuclear capability may  or may not spread beyond the countries  now in possession of this capability. It was not the focus of this study to ascertain the likelihood of spread taking place--the study   thus, does not hold problematical the like-  lihood of nuclear diffusion. To support  such a project, an agency of the govern-  ment must have respect for basic research; the Air Force Office of Scientific Research,  by its support of this research, has evi-   to the Air Force and Drs. Charles Hutchin-  son and Herman Sander for the instin-   The research reported in this study was  team research and interdisciplinary research  in the fullest sense of these new traditions.  The director of the project--Professor  Harold Guetzkow--holds professorships in psychology and sociology, as well as polit-   Wright, who figured so significantly in  this project, are psychologists. The simula- tion staff, without whom the summer 1960  running of INS-8 never would have been   political science, history, English, and  journalism. The author of this report is   The future referred to in this study may  never come to pass--nuclear capability may  or may not spread beyond the countries  now in possession of this capability. It was not the focus of this study to ascertain the likelihood of spread taking place--the study   thus, does not hold problematical the like-  lihood of nuclear diffusion. To support  such a project, an agency of the govern-  ment must have respect for basic research; the Air Force Office of Scientific Research,  by its support of this research, has evi-   to the Air Force and Drs. Charles Hutchin-  son and Herman Sander for the instin-   The research reported in this study was  team research and interdisciplinary research  in the fullest sense of these new traditions.  The director of the project--Professor  Harold Guetzkow--holds professorships in psychology and sociology, as well as polit-   Wright, who figured so significantly in  this project, are psychologists. The simula- tion staff, without whom the summer 1960  running of INS-8 never would have been   political science, history, English, and  journalism. The author of this report is   The future referred to in this study may  never come to pass--nuclear capability may  or may not spread beyond the countries  now in possession of this capability. It was not the focus of this study to ascertain the likelihood of spread taking place--the study   thus, does not hold problematical the like-  lihood of nuclear diffusion. To support  such a project, an agency of the govern-  ment must have respect for basic research; the Air Force Office of Scientific Research,  by its support of this research, has evi-   to the Air Force and Drs. Charles Hutchin-  son and Herman Sander for the instin-   The research reported in this study was  team research and interdisciplinary research  in the fullest sense of these new traditions.  The director of the project--Professor  Harold Guetzkow--holds professorships in psychology and sociology, as well as polit-   Wright, who figured so significantly in  this project, are psychologists. The simula- tion staff, without whom the summer 1960  running of INS-8 never would have been   political science, history, English, and  journalism. The author of this report is   The future referred to in this study may  never come to pass--nuclear capability may  or may not spread beyond the countries  now in possession of this capability. It was not the focus of this study to ascertain the likelihood of spread taking place--the study   thus, does not hold problematical the like-  lihood of nuclear diffusion. To support  such a project, an agency of the govern-  ment must have respect for basic research; the Air Force Office of Scientific Research,  by its support of this research, has evi-   to the Air Force and Drs. Charles Hutchin-  son and Herman Sander for the instin-  mental role they played in the funding of this study. Funds for this work came from  Contract AF 49 (638)-72 and Research  grant AF-AFOSR 95-63, Air Force Office  of Scientific Research, Office of Aerospace   Dr. Thomas Milburn, Head, Behavioral  Sciences Group, United States Naval Ord-  nance Test Station, aided materially in the  preparation of this report by generously  allowing the author to devote part of his   study.  Thanks are due to the faculty and staff of the Program of Graduate Research and  Training in International Relations, North-   Harold Guetzkow, Richard C. Snyder, and  Chadwick F. Alger, and to Dr. Robert C.  Noel and Mrs. Elaine Pancoast.   uals were instrumental in the execution of   Skinner, and Steven Star); I am grateful  to them as I am to the fifteen other research   hot summer of 1960. Finally, I wish to thank the 357 students  who participated in these experiments; it  is to them that this study is dedicated in  the hope that the world of their future may  see less conflict than the futuristic worlds  of their past.  mental role they played in the funding of this study. Funds for this work came from  Contract AF 49 (638)-72 and Research  grant AF-AFOSR 95-63, Air Force Office  of Scientific Research, Office of Aerospace   Dr. Thomas Milburn, Head, Behavioral  Sciences Group, United States Naval Ord-  nance Test Station, aided materially in the  preparation of this report by generously  allowing the author to devote part of his   study.  Thanks are due to the faculty and staff of the Program of Graduate Research and  Training in International Relations, North-   Harold Guetzkow, Richard C. Snyder, and  Chadwick F. Alger, and to Dr. Robert C.  Noel and Mrs. Elaine Pancoast.   uals were instrumental in the execution of   Skinner, and Steven Star); I am grateful  to them as I am to the fifteen other research   hot summer of 1960. Finally, I wish to thank the 357 students  who participated in these experiments; it  is to them that this study is dedicated in  the hope that the world of their future may  see less conflict than the futuristic worlds  of their past.  mental role they played in the funding of this study. Funds for this work came from  Contract AF 49 (638)-72 and Research  grant AF-AFOSR 95-63, Air Force Office  of Scientific Research, Office of Aerospace   Dr. Thomas Milburn, Head, Behavioral  Sciences Group, United States Naval Ord-  nance Test Station, aided materially in the  preparation of this report by generously  allowing the author to devote part of his   study.  Thanks are due to the faculty and staff of the Program of Graduate Research and  Training in International Relations, North-   Harold Guetzkow, Richard C. Snyder, and  Chadwick F. Alger, and to Dr. Robert C.  Noel and Mrs. Elaine Pancoast.   uals were instrumental in the execution of   Skinner, and Steven Star); I am grateful  to them as I am to the fifteen other research   hot summer of 1960. Finally, I wish to thank the 357 students  who participated in these experiments; it  is to them that this study is dedicated in  the hope that the world of their future may  see less conflict than the futuristic worlds  of their past.  mental role they played in the funding of this study. Funds for this work came from  Contract AF 49 (638)-72 and Research  grant AF-AFOSR 95-63, Air Force Office  of Scientific Research, Office of Aerospace   Dr. Thomas Milburn, Head, Behavioral  Sciences Group, United States Naval Ord-  nance Test Station, aided materially in the  preparation of this report by generously  allowing the author to devote part of his   study.  Thanks are due to the faculty and staff of the Program of Graduate Research and  Training in International Relations, North-   Harold Guetzkow, Richard C. Snyder, and  Chadwick F. Alger, and to Dr. Robert C.  Noel and Mrs. Elaine Pancoast.   uals were instrumental in the execution of   Skinner, and Steven Star); I am grateful  to them as I am to the fifteen other research   hot summer of 1960. Finally, I wish to thank the 357 students  who participated in these experiments; it  is to them that this study is dedicated in  the hope that the world of their future may  see less conflict than the futuristic worlds  of their past.  mental role they played in the funding of this study. Funds for this work came from  Contract AF 49 (638)-72 and Research  grant AF-AFOSR 95-63, Air Force Office  of Scientific Research, Office of Aerospace   Dr. Thomas Milburn, Head, Behavioral  Sciences Group, United States Naval Ord-  nance Test Station, aided materially in the  preparation of this report by generously  allowing the author to devote part of his   study.  Thanks are due to the faculty and staff of the Program of Graduate Research and  Training in International Relations, North-   Harold Guetzkow, Richard C. Snyder, and  Chadwick F. Alger, and to Dr. Robert C.  Noel and Mrs. Elaine Pancoast.   uals were instrumental in the execution of   Skinner, and Steven Star); I am grateful  to them as I am to the fifteen other research   hot summer of 1960. Finally, I wish to thank the 357 students  who participated in these experiments; it  is to them that this study is dedicated in  the hope that the world of their future may  see less conflict than the futuristic worlds  of their past. This content downloaded from 148.210.106.123 on Tue, 28 Nov 2017 16:15:20 UTCAll use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms
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