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Globalisations effect on demographics
   1 Effects of Economic Globalisation on employment trend and wages in developing countries: Lessons from Nigeria experiences. Obayelu Abiodun Elijah Email: obayelu@yahoo.com Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Ibadan, Nigeria Selected paper for presentation at the twenty second National Conference of Labour Economics organized by Association of Italian Economist of Labour (AIEL), September 13-14, 2007 Abstract Since 1986, Nigeria has gradually been integrating with the global economy. This paper examines the effect of globalization on employment and wages in Nigeria. The effects of globalization have been difficult to isolate and evaluate theoretically and empirically due to it multi-faceted nature, but this study attempt to analyse the effects on employment and employees’ wages by looking at what happened before, during and after globalization in Nigeria. Information and data were mainly gathered through secondary sources, The results of the analysis shows that globalisation of the Nigeria economy through various economic reforms, deregulation and privatisation has led to downsizing of employment in civil service thereby compounding the widespread job queuing in Nigeria. The collapse of some of the private sector firms has also led to retrenchment of workers following stiff competition from import after libralisation thereby increasing both rural and urban unemployment in Nigeria. Also revealed is the problem of increase in income inequality in the country. There appeared to be a wide gap between earnings of the skilled and unskilled workers in the country. Many less skilled workers and experienced worker have also lost their jobs as a result of globalisation. On the positive side, globalisation has led to high employment creation in the informal sector compared with the job lost in the formal sector due to the increasing number of private firms. Most of the  jobs created in informal sectors are insecure despite there higher pay compared to wages in the formal sector. There is the need for training and re-training of employee in order to assist them in maintaining their jobs  Keywords: globalization, labour market, employment, wages, developing countries and Nigeria   2  Section one: Introduction Globalization has become the catch-all term used to refer to those various phenomena and processes that are  brought about by changes towards world economic integration ((UN-DAW, 1999). It is a complex process implying growing in international integration of economies with regard to markets for goods and factors of  production (Bigsten and Durevall 2003) affecting many aspects of people ’s lives. It is an economic and multi-faceted phenomenon, and each facet may have different effects on employment, varying by country, time, industry, policies and the like. Globalisation of the Nigeria economy started in 1986 during the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) which ushered the country to libralisation, deregulation, commercialization and privatization programme. It comes as a part of large array of economic, technical, social, legal and policy changes, each with interactions and feedbacks, making it difficult to separate the effects. Different analysts tend to focus on different aspects of globalisation, thus often talking at cross  purposes (Sanjaya, 2002). The effects are diverse and difficult to isolate and evaluate. Studies on the effects of globalization on employment, wages and economic growth are very rare in Africa unlike others. This suggests that a generalisable relationship between globalisation and employment in developing countries as a whole may not exist. The relationship is, rather, context specific, dynamic and changeable, reflecting  particular interactions in each economy between the external facets of globalisation (e.g. shrinking economic distance, greater trade or the spread of international production) that apply to the economy and internal factors that affect its employment response in analytical terms The process of economy globalization is a process of global industrial restructuring and readjustment. Economic globalization is the increasing interdependence of World economics as a result of the growing scale of cross-border trade of commodities and services, flow of international capital and wide. While some  people believe that globalisation does translate into substantial job creation in developing countries. Others  believe that it leads to job loss. In practice, the most important policy modifications fostering the integration of national economies are those that have reduced barriers to trade and to capital flows. Many labour market reforms in developing countries have been introduced as an element of a larger package of reforms that has included liberalization of trade policies and capital markets. In many instances they have been introduced specifically in order to support the success of those elements of the policy reform aimed at greater external integration. The impact of globalization is greatly dependent on the specific features of labour markets. It is therefore necessary to study the implications of labour market reforms, when investigating the impact of globalization. Policy reforms aimed at attracting foreign capital, and at enabling the domestic economy to adjust maximally so as to take advantage of opportunities for trade, have often included an element of labour market liberalization.   3This paper addresses the following questions such as: What are the core characteristics of the process we call globalization? What effect has the enormous increase in globalisation had on earnings and employment in the  Nigerian labour market? Has this impact improved or disintegrated the welfare of the workers? What implications does this have for economic growth in Nigeria? Section two: Conceptual and theoretical underpinning of globalizations, employment and wages 2.1 Impacts of globalization on employment generation One of the key features of industrial restructuring in the current globalisation process is the increasing  polarisation in employment conditions and a growing differentiation in the workforce. One method employed by companies in their attempt to stay competitive through increased flexibility in the production  process, is the “casualisation” of labour. This includes part-time workers, seasonal workers, home workers and subcontracted workers. Globalisation is often equated with growing integration of national economies. In the sphere of economics, globalisation is reflected in the increasing acceptance of free markets and private enterprise as the principal mechanism of promoting economic activities (Manda, 2002). Globalization is therefore generally seen as the process of broadening and deepening of inter-relationships in international trade, foreign investment and portfolio flows (Wignaraja, 2001). It is viewed as a rootless process of constantly moving jobs to low-wage countries (Uchitelle 2005). The first attempts to measure the impact of ‘globalisation’ on employment date back to the early 1970s. Since then, the employment effects in Less Developed Countries (LDCS) have been studied by a great number of specialists and institutions. The literature on the effects of trade liberalization on employment and wages has been dominated by extensions of the Hecksher-Ohlin model. The main result envisaged is that specialization within developing countries in the production of labour-intensive products will lead to an increase in employment in the labour-intensive sector. Also, as this sector utilizes, for the most part, unskilled labour, the relative demand for unskilled workers should increase, and therefore, the wage gap  between unskilled and skilled workers should decrease Also a great number of studies have considered wage formation in greater detail. One interesting set of findings is that wage formation seems to be critically dependent on the trade position in the sense that import threats exert a downward pressure on wages, while export may be associated with higher wages. Bernard and Jensen (1999, 2001) and Bernard et al. (2003) find that exporting firms tend to have higher productivity and  pay higher wages, with the causality running from productivity to exports. Interestingly, they also find that export tends to drive out less productive firms and induce a reallocation of production to more efficient firms. Schank, Schnabel and Wagner (2004) list 18 empirical studies using data from 20 countries, supporting that exporting firms tend to pay higher wages. Empirical studies have also found that import penetration tends to lower wages (see e.g. Boulhol et al. (2006), Revenga (1992), Nicoletti et al. (2001) and Jean and Nicoletti   4(2002)). Globalisation has offered many employment benefits to developing countries like Nigeria. It enhances employment and earnings in developing countries because of inflows of foreign investment or increases in the value of a developing country’s export products (Edmonds,2002). When a country opens to international markets, foreign investment often (but not always) enters the country. This leads to increases in the demand for local labor and hence higher wages. In addition, many of today's developing countries have comparative advantage in agriculture, and integration into international markets increase the price of the export product to international levels. Thus, trade liberalization may increase employment and wages in these agricultural export sectors. These changes in developing country labor markets stemming from globalization could increase child labor. Increased earning opportunities may increase the demand for child labor and the wages paid to children. Indirectly, increased earnings opportunities to parents can change the types of work  performed by parents. Children may be forced to take over some of the activities usually performed by adults within their household. In the external world these countries face, markets become more accessible, transport costs lower, information easier to get, technology easier to access and capital easier to raise: this promises more exports, faster transfer of technology and greater investment resources. On the domestic front, closer integration with the world economy also promises much. Trade liberalisation, according to received trade theory, promotes labour-intensity in (export and domestic-oriented) activities and so boosts employment. Investment liberalisation leads to larger inflows of technology, information, capital, skills and various services, often in a ‘packaged’ form that lets them be deployed quickly and efficiently. In Nigeria small-scale agriculture provides the main source of employment for most of the population living in the rural areas. Although employment participation for both male and female has been on the decrease, the share for wage employment and self-employed has been increasing since the 1986s, the economic reform  period till this present reform that started in 1999. During this period, however, the share of informal sector employment has been increasing. The share of wage employment as a percentage of total employment outside smallholder agriculture has been declining from 78 percent in 1988 to 28 percent in the year 2000. The share of self-employment and the unpaid family workers has also been declining. However, the share of the informal sector employment in total employment outside smallholder agriculture has increased dramatically from 20 percent in 1988 to 70 percent in the year 2000. The jump in the share of employment in informal sector between 1989 and 1990 from 21 percent to 39 percent respectively, may partly be due to improved statistical coverage of the informal sector in the 1990s. This shows that during structural adjustment program period there has been a shift in employment generation from the formal sector to the informal sector.
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