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El Niño Early Warning for Sustainable Development in Pacific Rim Countries and Islands. Galapagos Islands, Ecuador. 13-16 September 2004 ( Dr. Michael H. Glantz, Editor). (I acted as a workshop participant/attendee/discussant).

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El Niño Early Warning for Sustainable Development in Pacific Rim Countries and Islands. Galapagos Islands, Ecuador. 13-16 September 2004 ( Dr. Michael H. Glantz, Editor). (I acted as a workshop participant/attendee/discussant).
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    Usable Science 9: El Niño Early Warning for Sustainable Development in Pacific Rim Countries and Islands Galapagos Islands, Ecuador 13–16 September 2004 Michael H. Glantz www.isse.ucar.edu/galapagos/ 25 February 2005 Organized by: National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado USA  and Jose Luis Santos CIIFEN Guayaquil, Ecuador Glantz, M.H. (ed.), 2005: Usable Science 9: El Niño Early Warning for Sustainable  Development in the Pacific Rim and Island  s. Report of workshop held 13– 16 September 2004 in the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador. Boulder, CO: ISSE/NCAR.    11    Table of Contents Introduction 1 Galapagos Highlights  4 Shanghai Early Warning Systems Highlights  9 El Niño Knowledge: A Few Definitions 10 Linking Science to Application and Application to Science 13 Defining Sustainable Development 14 Trusts in Forecasts 15 Top Down or Bottom Up?  16 Sustainability Science 16 ENSO Science: El Niño, La Niña and In-between 17 ENSO-Related Hotspots in the Pacific Region 20 El Niño Knowledge as Early Warning for Sustainable Development: The SWOC Method 23 Strengths  23 Weaknesses  24 Opportunities  25 Constraints  26 Expectations about Early Warning Systems 27 El Niño’s Cascade of Forecasts 27 The Use of El Niño Knowledge  27 Hazards  28 Health 29 Agriculture, Rangelands and Water   32 Fisheries  34 World Conference on Disaster Reduction 35 Roundtable: El Niño’s Impacts on Flora and Fauna in the Galapagos 36 Winners and Losers Issues Related to El Niño 37 Lessons to be Learned from Lessons Already Learned 38 The Media and Early Warnings 41 Vulnerability and Resilience 44 Environmental Justice Issues: Using Hurricane Mitch as an Example 44 Climate Change & the Pacific Rim and Islands 47 Right-sizing El Niño Early Warnings 49 Prospects of Linking across the Pacific 52 Strengths & Opportunities  52 Weaknesses & Constraints  53 The Grand Challenge: Dynamics of Humanity on Earth 53 References 55 Appendix A (Shanghai EWS Highlights) 58 Appendix B (Stuart Banks report) 61 Appendix C (Small Islands Voice) 64 Participant List 66 Agenda 69    El Niño Early Warning for Sustainable Development in Pacific Rim Countries and Islands Michael H. Glantz National Center for Atmospheric Research *   During the preparation of this report, including the feedback from participants from various countries, cultural and disciplinary backgrounds, it became clear that “words matter.” They matter because we communicate by way of the written or spoken word. Some of the key words, including notions and concepts, used during the workshop were either not easily translated into other languages or cultures, or had different meanings and nuances, depending on the context in which they were used. The notion of “hotspots,” serves as one example. The Latin American participants noted that it does not translate well into Spanish. This raised a concern about other notions that might also not be well expressed in other languages. The word “creeping” as part of the phrase “creeping environmental change” was difficult to express in Russian. Some participants took issue with phrases and words such as the following: “weak” El Niño (which could mean either weak physical aspects or weak societal impacts); “reliable forecast”; and even “adaptation.” This suggested that many words and concepts we use are geography-bound or academic-discipline-bound. Please keep this in mind when reading this report. Each word, even within a given language, can have several meanings in a dictionary. It is important to note the context in which the phrase or the concept is embedded and to realize that such cultural, technical, and geographic meanings can vary in interpretation from their intended use in this report. This is an ever-present problem for which there is no easy solution. Introduction The convening of a workshop on “El Niño Early Warning for Sustainable Development in Pacific Rim Countries and Islands” was inspired by the deliberations of an earlier workshop held in Shanghai, China in October 2003 on  Early Warning Systems: Do’s and  Don’ts . The Galapagos workshop was the ninth “Usable Science” workshop organized by the Environmental and Societal Impacts Group at NCAR in the past ten years. This workshop was co-organized by Jose Luis Santos of CIIFEN (Centro Internacional para la Investigación del Fenómeno de El Niño). Several of the Usable Science workshops were linked to various aspects related to El Niño: forecasting, impacts, responses to forecasts and responses to impacts of El Niño, and the extreme meteorological events that an El  Niño often spawns. The goal of the Galapagos meeting was to regionalize early warning systems geographically and to focus on a specific climate-related phenomenon – El Niño. El Niño is known with varying degrees of reliability to spawn climate- and weather-  *  The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is sponsored by the National Science Foundation and operated by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. 1
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