18 pages

A Middle East free of nuclear weapons: possible, probable or pipe-dream? (P. M. LEWIS)

Please download to get full document.

View again

of 18
All materials on our website are shared by users. If you have any questions about copyright issues, please report us to resolve them. We are always happy to assist you.
A Middle East free of nuclear weapons: possible, probable or pipe-dream? (P. M. LEWIS)
  A Middle East free of nuclear weapons:possible, probable or pipe-dream? PATRICIA M. LEWIS International Afairs   89 : 2 (2013) 433–450© 2013 The Author(s). International Afairs © 2013 The Royal Institute o International Afairs. Published by Blackwell Publishin gLt, 9600 Garsingtn Ra, Or ox4 2dq, UK an 350 Main Street, Malen, MA 02148, USA. T ate, n cuntry in the Mile East has eclare a nuclear weapns capability.In itsel, that is a remarkable act. Over recent years, a lay reaer cul be rgivenr thinking that n ther regin were prlierating nuclear weapns an that thenly cuntry  prlieratin cncern in the Mile East is Iran. Yet the mstrecent cuntry t evelp nuclear weapns capabilities is Nrth Krea, whichis als evelping a lng-range missile capability with sme success. In the late1990s, Inia an Pakistan eclare their lng-hel nuclear weapns prgrammesthrugh a series  nuclear weapns tests. An ve states—China, France, Russia,the Unite Kingm an the Unite States—retain an cntinue t evelptheir nuclear weapns stckpiles, espite the en  the Cl War an signicantcncerns abut nuclear terrrism an prlieratin.It is wiely believe that Israel has a ully ege, eliverable nuclear weapnsarsenal; but this cannt be cnrme because the Israeli prgramme is shrue insecrecy an Israel’s state plicy is that it will ‘nt be the rst t intruce’ nuclearweapns int the regin. 1 Nnetheless, there are ew wh ubt the eistence  Israeli nuclear weapns—particularly since the epsure  the prgramme bytechnician Mrechai Vanunu in 1986. 2 Ira came very clse t cnstructing a wrkable nuclear weapn, but itshaphazar military prgramme was halte by the cnseuences  the isastrusattack n Kuwait in 1990 an the subseuent ceasere reslutin in the UN SecurityCuncil, 3 which establishe the UN Special Cmmissin (UNSCOM). The Inter-natinal Atmic Energy Agency (IAEA), wrking uner UNSCOM’s pwers  investigatin, uncvere a well-evelpe Irai nuclear weapns prgramme in1991 an ismantle it cmpletely. UNSCOM als estrye almst all  Ira’schemical capability, an Ira itsel perrme the same task r its bilgicalweapns prgramme in spring 1991.Cncerns abut the lng-term intentins  Iran an its technical an materialcapabilities have been grwing ver the last tw ecaes. In recent years there 1 Avner Chen, The worst-kept secret: Israel’s bargain with the bomb (New Yrk: Clumbia University Press, 2010). 2 ‘Reveale: the secrets  Israel’s nuclear arsenal’, Sunday Times , 5 Oct. 1986, pp. 1, 4–5; http://www.vanunu.cm/uscampaign/phts.html, accesse 11 Feb. 2013. 3 UNSC Reslutin 687, apte by the Security Cuncil at its 2981st meeting n 3 April 1991, http://www.as.rg/news/un/ira/sres/sres0687.htm, accesse 11 Feb. 2013.  Patricia M. Lewis 434 International Afairs 89: 2, 2013Copyright © 2013 The Author(s). International Afairs © 2013 The Royal Institute o International Afairs. has been an increasing number  ifculties between the IAEA an Iran. InNvember 2012, the irectr general  the IAEA state that ‘the Agency isunable t prvie creible assurance abut the absence  uneclare nuclearmaterial an activities in Iran, an therere t cnclue that all nuclear materialin Iran is in peaceul activities’. 4 In 2006, the UN Security Cuncil, manateby Reslutin 1737, 5 which prhibits all Iranian enrichment-relate an repr-cessing activities, an subseuent reslutins, establishe a cmmittee t ensurethe maintenance  an embarg n prlieratin-sensitive nuclear an ballisticmissile prgrammes technlgies; a ban n the eprt/prcurement  any armsan relate materiel rm Iran; a ban n the supply  seven specie categries cnventinal weapns an relate materiel t Iran; an a travel ban an assetsreeze n esignate persns an entities. The assets reeze als applies t anyiniviuals r entities acting n behal , r at the irectin , the esignatepersns an entities, an t entities wne r cntrlle by them. 6 There remain cncerns ver Syria’s capabilities an intentins in bth nuclearan chemical weapnry, an the civil war in Syria has eacerbate cncerns abutthe ptential use  chemical weapns. Fears ver Libya have abate since theiscvery in 2003  an embrynic nuclear prgramme an a chemical weapnscapability that has nw been turne ver t the Organizatin r the Prhibi-tin  Chemical Weapns (OPCW). In 2004 the IAEA apte a reslutin n‘Implementatin  the NPT Saeguars Agreement in Libya’ llwing Libya’secisin t eliminate ‘all materials, euipment an prgrammes leaing t thepructin  internatinally prscribe weapns—incluing nuclear weapns’an signe the Aitinal Prtcl n 10 March 2004. 7 Other states in the regin ha, in the past, eschewe the nuclear weapnsptin, instea jining the Nuclear Nn-Prlieratin Treaty (NPT) with a viewt establishing a reginal security envirnment in the Mile East that was ntbase n nuclear weapns. Egypt in particular has le the intellectual an plit-ical thinking n this issue in the League  Arab States, an while it has twresearch reactrs has hithert nt chsen the path  nuclear energy. Hwever,that may be changing. In late 2012, Egypt’s electricity an energy minister SaaMahmu Balbaa annunce the preparatin  a reuest r prpsals (RFP), tbe presente t ptential investrs, n the establishment  Egypt’s rst nuclearpwer plant, with the aim  establishing ur pwer plants t pruce a ttal  4,000 MW by 2025. 8 4 IAEA, ‘Reprt by the irectr general: implementatin  the NPT Saeguars Agreement an relevantprvisins  Security Cuncil reslutins in the Islamic Republic  Iran’, GOV/2012/55, 16 Nv. 2012,http://www.iaea.rg/Publicatins/Dcuments/Bar/2012/gv2012-55.p, accesse 11 Feb. 2013. 5 UNSC Reslutin 1737, apte by the Security Cuncil at its 5612th meeting n 23 Dec. 2006, http://www.un.rg/ga/search/view_c.asp?symbl=S/RES/1737(2006), accesse 11 Feb. 2013. 6 http://www.un.rg/sc/cmmittees/1737/, accesse 11 Feb. 2013. 7 ‘Implementatin  the NPT Saeguars Agreement  the Scialist Peple’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya,reslutin apte by the Bar n 10 March 2004’, GOV/2004/18, http://www.iaea.rg/Publicatins/ Dcuments/Bar/2004/gv2004-18.p, accesse 11 Feb. 2013. 8 ‘Electricity minister: reuest r prpsal reay r rst nuclear plant’, Egypt Independent , 31 Dec. 2012, http:// www.egyptinepenent.cm/news/electricity-minister-reuest-prpsal-reay-rst-nuclear-plant, accesse11 Feb. 2013.   A Middle East free of nuclear weapons 435 International Afairs 89: 2, 2013Copyright © 2013 The Author(s). International Afairs © 2013 The Royal Institute o International Afairs. It is wrth nting als that Turkey’s interest in nuclear energy remains strngan that the cuntry is a base r US nuclear weapns; an that, n the ther sie the regin, the highly unstable state  Pakistan has a ully ege, eclarean peratinally eplye capability.Other cuntries in the regin, incluing the Unite Arab Emirates, Jranan Saui Arabia, have been revisiting the pssibilities  civil nuclear energy,encurage t take this rute by cuntries such as the Unite States, the Republic Krea, France an Japan. There is n inicatin that these plans have anycnnectin t uture military prgrammes—inee, all states in the regin, withthe eceptin  Israel, are states parties t the NPT—but civil nuclear energycapabilities  enable military ptins later n, shul plitical calculatins alter.It is wrth nting that since the evastating tsunami in Japan in March 2011 an thesubseuent nuclear catastrphe at the Fukushima Daiichi pwer plant, a number states have put n hl r slwe wn their plans r nuclear energy. Theseinclue Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait an Oman. 9 This article prvies an verview  the attempts t rganize an fcial reginalcnerence n a zne ree rm weapns  mass estructin (WMD) in the MileEast, as manate by the 2010 NPT review cnerence. The article attempts tescribe the cntet  that prcess in terms  reginal nuclear prgrammes, theevlutin  nuclear weapn-ree znes (NWFZs) an NPT plitics. In aitin,it utlines a set  recmmenatins r what might cnstitute a treaty, anprpses interim steps that wul supprt the establishment  a Mile EastWMD-ree zne, rawing n histrical preceents rm relevant cases. The NWFZ: prevention and prohibition The initial prpsal r an NWFZ in the Mile East was put rwar in 1962, bythe Cmmittee r the Denuclearizatin  the Mile East—a grup  highlyregare Israeli intellectuals uner the leaership  Eliezer Livneh an YeshayahuLeibwitz. The cmmittee, juging the evelpment  nuclear weapns ‘tcnstitute a anger t Israel an t peace in the Mile East’, urge the UniteNatins t intervene ‘t prevent military nuclear pructin’. It was rme in thehpe that Israel’s acuisitin  a nuclear weapns capability cul be restallean that a nn-prlieratin regime cul take hl in the Mile East. Thecmmittee was wun up llwing the Si Day War in 1967, but there remainsa strng stran  thinking, incluing an fcial plicy, within Israel supprtingthe ntin  a NWF Mile East, as evience by Israel’s annual UN GeneralAssembly vte in avur  such a zne.Cnitins r establishing an NWFZ in the Mile East were put rwar byEgypt at the UN General Assembly in 1963, 10 an picke up later that ecae by 9 Antn Khlpkv, ‘Prspects r nuclear pwer in the Mile East ater Fukushima an the Arab Spring’,Unite Natins Institute r Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), Nv. 2012, http://www.uniir.rg/p/ uvrages/p-1-92-9045-012-O-en.p, accesse 11 Feb. 2013. 10 Mhamme Kary Sai, ‘Mile East weapns  mass estructin ree zne: reginal security annn-prlieratin issues’, in V. Cserveny et al., Building a weapons o mass destruction ree zone in the Middle East: global non-prolieration regimes and regional experiences (Geneva: UNIDIR, 2004), p. 127.  Patricia M. Lewis 436 International Afairs 89: 2, 2013Copyright © 2013 The Author(s). International Afairs © 2013 The Royal Institute o International Afairs. Shah Mhamma Reza Shah Pahlavi  Iran. 11 In 1974, spurre n by imprvingArab–Israeli relatins an the Inian nuclear weapn test that year, Iran an Egyptrmally table a jint UN General Assembly reslutin calling r the establish-ment  an NWFZ in the Mile East. 12 The reslutin was apte by a majrity 138 vtes, with nly Israel an Burma abstaining. 13 In its current rm, the reslutin invites all states in the regin t ahere tthe NPT, place all their nuclear activities uner IAEA saeguars, an—peningthe establishment  an NWFZ—nt t pruce, test, acuire r statin nuclearweapns n their territries, an states that a Mile East NWFZ ‘wul greatlyenhance internatinal peace an security’.The Egyptian–Iranian reslutin is apte each year; Israel jine thecnsensus n it rm 1980, as a irect result  the Egypt–Israel peace treatyan the aptin  a reginal rather than glbal apprach t nuclear plicy. Inprinciple, therere, all states in the Mile East epress supprt r a veriablereginal NWFZ.It is imprtant t nte, hwever, that there eists a majr cnceptual, strategican tactical ierence between Israel an the Arab states n what euphemisticallyis calle ‘seuencing’. What this means is that Israel believes that a WMD-reezne wul llw n rm a wier peace treaty that wul inclue ull recgni-tin  Israel by its neighburs, the remval  any aggressive threat an the estab-lishment  a stable security envirnment: ‘peace rst, zne secn’. The Arabstates, hwever, believe that peace cannt be achieve with a nuclear-arme Israelin the Mile East, an have t ate taken the view that peace wul llw thenegtiatin  a WMD-ree zne: ‘zne rst, peace secn’. 14 Obviusly, thesemirrr images  security in the regin uickly enrce an impasse within anyreginal security iscussin an lie at the heart  why s many interlcutrsespair  ever unravelling the tangle knts  security ilemmas in the regin.Whether Aleaner riing t the rescue, swr in han, cul represent theArab Awakening remains t be seen. Certainly, changes in the regin are alteringrelatinships, perceptins, accuntabilities an pririties, an all this will havean impact n the characterizatin  the WMD-ree zne. It is uite pssiblethat, as uture thinking evelps, the security cncerns  the regin may leakey Arab states t ascertain that a peace treaty shul take pririty ver reginalnuclear isarmament. On the ther han, pressures an cncerns ver Iran anthe cnict in Syria cul lea Israel t change its lng-hel plicy an urgentlyeman a Mile East WMD-ree zne ahea  any ther treaty it may wish tsee. Stranger things have happene. 11 Kathleen Teltsch, ‘Iran asks UN actin t keep regin ree  nuclear arms’, New York Times , 13 July 1974,http://www.iranaairs.cm/.share/image.html?/phts/uncategrize/2007/08/20/irannuclearreezne. jpg, accesse 11 Feb. 2013. 12 UN General Assembly Reslutin A/RES/3263 (XXIX), 29th sessin, ‘Establishment  a nuclear weapnree zne in the regin  the Mile East’, http://access-s-ny.un.rg/c/RESOLUTION/GEN/ NR0/738/65/IMG/NR073865.p?OpenElement, accesse 11 Feb. 2013. 13 Sai, ‘Mile East weapns  mass estructin ree zne’, p. 126. 14 Kelsey Davenprt, ‘WMD-ree Mile East prpsal at a glance’, Arms Cntrl Assciatin, Nv. 2012,http://www.armscntrl.rg/actsheets/mewmz#4, accesse 11 Feb. 2013.   A Middle East free of nuclear weapons 437 International Afairs 89: 2, 2013Copyright © 2013 The Author(s). International Afairs © 2013 The Royal Institute o International Afairs. The NPT was negtiate in 1968 an entere int rce in 1970. Egypt wasne  the rst cuntries t sign the treaty when it pene r signature n 1 July 1968 an ratie in 1981, llwing the 1979 signing  the peace treaty withIsrael. Other Arab states an Iran i likewise, althugh it was nt until 1997, anthanks t tireless avcacy by Egypt, that all Arab states ha jine the NPT,leaving Israel alne in the regin t remain utsie the treaty. Glbal membership the NPT is nearly universal, with nly Inia, Pakistan an Israel never having jine it. Nrth Krea annunce its withrawal in 2003, althugh its legal statusis in ispute. In the agree review cuments, the states parties invariably call runiversalizatin  the treaty an plea with Inia, Israel an Pakistan t acceeas nn-nuclear weapn states.Article VII  the NPT is specically aime at encuraging NWFZs, enshrining‘the right  any grup  States t cnclue reginal treaties in rer t assurethe ttal absence  nuclear weapns in their respective territries’. 15 Inee,the rst NWFZ in Latin America—the 1967 Treaty  Tlatellc—preates theNPT, as  the 1959 Antarctic Treaty, which prhibits nuclear eplsins anthe ispsal  raiactive waste material in Antarctica, an the 1967 Outer SpaceTreaty, which prhibits any bjects carrying nuclear weapns r any ther kins WMD being place in rbit arun the Earth r installe n celestial bies,r in uter space in any ther manner.Since 1968, several NWFZ treaties have been negtiate: 16 the 1971 Sea-beTreaty; the 1986 Treaty  Rartnga (Suth Pacic); the 1995 Treaty  Bangkk(Suth-East Asia); the 1996 Treaty  Pelinaba (Arica); an the 2006 CentralAsian Nuclear-Weapn-Free Zne Treaty (smetimes calle the Treaty  Semip-alatinsk). In aitin, Mnglia accre itsel nuclear weapn-ree status unernatinal law in 2000, ntiying the Unite Natins by a rmal cmmuniué. 17 In April 1990, Presient Hsni Mubarak  Egypt suggeste that the prpsalsr a NWFZ in the Mile East be etene t inclue all WMD (nuclear,chemical an bilgical weapns). The Mubarak prpsal stresse that all states the regin shul make eual an reciprcal cmmitments, an that verica-tin measures an malities shul be establishe t ensure ull cmpliance. 18 Fllwing Ira’s brutal use  chemical weapns against Iran in the eight-yearwar rm 1980 t 1988, an als against the Kurs  bth Iran an Ira, anIra’s invasin  Kuwait, the subseuent ceasere reslutin apte in the UNSecurity Cuncil (UNSCR 687) in 1991 specically rames the actins t be takenby Ira as representing ‘steps twars the gal  establishing in the Mile East azne ree rm weapns  mass estructin an all missiles r their elivery an 15 Treaty n the Nn-Prlieratin  Nuclear Weapns, http://www.un.rg/isarmament/WMD/Nuclear/ NPTtet.shtml, accesse 11 Feb. 2013. 16 Patricia Lewis an William C. Ptter, ‘The lng jurney twar a WMD-ree Mile East’,  Arms Control Today , vl. 41, Sept. 2011, pp. 8–14. 17 A/55/56, 29 Feb. 2000, http://www.un.rg/cuments/ga/cs/55/a5556.p, accesse 11 Feb. 2013. 18 Fawzy H. Hamma an Ael M. Ali, ‘Principles  establishing a Mile East weapns  mass estructinree zne: mnitring an vericatin system’, in Cserveny et al., Building a weapons o mass destruction ree zonein the Middle East , p. 89.
We Need Your Support
Thank you for visiting our website and your interest in our free products and services. We are nonprofit website to share and download documents. To the running of this website, we need your help to support us.

Thanks to everyone for your continued support.

No, Thanks

We need your sign to support Project to invent "SMART AND CONTROLLABLE REFLECTIVE BALLOONS" to cover the Sun and Save Our Earth.

More details...

Sign Now!

We are very appreciated for your Prompt Action!